Wheat feeds the world, and when it runs short, whole societies are at risk.
That’s why renewed disruption in some of the world’s key breadbaskets is raising concerns.
Crop exports from Ukraine and Russia have tumbled in recent weeks as each has stepped up attacks on the other’s ports and ships loading grains. That’s sent prices of wheat and corn rallying to multi-year highs.
The two are key to the global grains trade, making up more than a quarter of all wheat exports and supplying some of the world’s most populous nations, from Egypt to Bangladesh, as well as poorer states in sub-Saharan Africa.
The crisis is prompting warnings of consequences for food inflation and food security.
For now, global food prices are still below the record levels reached in 2022 immediately after Russia’s attempt to take Kyiv. Back then, Russia’s bumper harvest helped ease the strain, as did a diplomatic breakthrough to establish an export corridor.
This time, the situation is more precarious.
Most of Russia’s own supplies are disrupted by Ukrainian drone attacks, prompting Moscow to consider measures to support its farmers.
Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy said this week that Kyiv will again seek talks with Vladimir Putin, despite the Russian president’s rejection of a Black Sea truce days earlier.
The standoff occurs at a particularly sensitive time for global food supplies.
The war in Iran has boosted fertilizer and fuel costs, leading farmers to curb planting. The heat waves and droughts that swept Europe and the US have hit harvests.
Then there’s the prospect of a record El Niño unleashing protectionist measures.
When Russia banned wheat exports in 2010 following wildfires, it helped send prices soaring, a contributing factor in the Arab Spring.
As the UN recently noted in a warning over the impact on vulnerable states: when families cannot put food on the table, the choice is stark: starve, move — or rebel. — Agnieszka de Sousa